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Likelihood Models for Detecting Positively Selected Amino Acid Sites and Applications to the HIV-1 Envelope Gene
Rasmus Nielsena and Ziheng Yanga,ba Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-3140,
b Department of Biology, University College London, London NW1 2HE, England
Corresponding author: Rasmus Nielsen, Museum of Comparative Zoology, Harvard University, 26 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA 02138, rasmus{at}mws4.biol.berkeley.edu (E-mail).
Communicating editor: M. K. UYENOYAMA
| ABSTRACT |
|---|
Several codon-based models for the evolution of protein-coding DNA sequences are developed that account for varying selection intensity among amino acid sites. The "neutral model" assumes two categories of sites at which amino acid replacements are either neutral or deleterious. The "positive-selection model" assumes an additional category of positively selected sites at which nonsynonymous substitutions occur at a higher rate than synonymous ones. This model is also used to identify target sites for positive selection. The models are applied to a data set of the V3 region of the HIV-1 envelope gene, sequenced at different years after the infection of one patient. The results provide strong support for variable selection intensity among amino acid sites The neutral model is rejected in favor of the positive-selection model, indicating the operation of positive selection in the region. Positively selected sites are found in both the V3 region and the flanking regions.
AN excess of nonsynonymous substitutions over synonymous substitutions is an unambiguous indicator of positive natural selection at the molecular level. Estimation of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitution rates has thus provided an important tool to study the process of molecular sequence evolution. For example, positive selection has been identified this way in several systems, including the human major histocompatibility complex (![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
A number of methods have been proposed to estimate the numbers of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonymous (dN) substitutions per site between two sequences (e.g., ![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
In almost all proteins where positive selection has been demonstrated to be operating, only a few amino acid sites were found to be responsible for the adaptive evolution (![]()
![]()
![]()
In this paper, we develop codon-based models for the evolution of protein-coding DNA sequences that allow for variable selection intensity among sites. The nonsynonymous/synonymous substitution rate ratio (dN/dS), which reflects the selection intensity at the amino acid level, is allowed to vary among amino acid sites. The models are implemented in a maximum likelihood framework and lead to likelihood ratio tests of neutral evolution. We also develop a Bayesian approach for identifying positively selected amino acid sites. The models and methods are applied to analyze a data set of the V3 region of the HIV-1 envelope gene (![]()
| THEORY |
|---|
Model of codon substitution:
A simplified version of the codon substitution model proposed by ![]()
j ) is given by
![]() |
(1) |
is the transition/transversion rate ratio,
is the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio, and
j is the equilibrium frequency of codon j, calculated using the nucleotide frequencies at the three codon positions. Note that the relationship holds that
=
. The unit of evolution under such a model is the codon and, in this paper, the term "site" refers to a codon or amino acid instead of a nucleotide.
Neutral model:
This model assumes two categories of sites in the gene. The first category includes neutral sites where nonsynonymous mutations are neutral, with the dN/dS ratio
1 = 1. The substitution rate from codon i to j for a site in this category is
![]() |
(2) |
The second category includes the conserved sites, where nonsynonymous mutations are deleterious and eliminated by selection, and only synonymous substitutions are possible, so that
2 = 0. The substitution rate from codon i to j (i
j ) at such a site is thus
![]() |
(3) |
Under this model, the synonymous substitution rate is constant among sites, while the nonsynonymous rate is variable. At the conserved sites, the nonsynonymous rate is zero, and at the neutral sites, the nonsynonymous rate is equal to the synonymous rate.
Let the proportions of codon sites in the two categories be p1 and p2 = 1 - p1. Let n be the number of sites (codons) in the sequence and the data at site h be xh (h = 1, 2, ... , n). Because we do not know a priori which category a site belongs to, the probability of observing data xh is an average over the two possibilities:
![]() |
(4) |
k) is the probability of observing data xh given that site h is from category k (k = 1, 2), with nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio
k. This conditional probability can be calculated for a given phylogenetic tree and branch lengths according to the method of
![]() |
(5) |
It may be noted that the structure of the model is similar to models of variable evolutionary rates among nucleotide or amino acid sites developed previously (![]()
![]()
![]()
) reflecting selection intensity under the present model, are both formulated as random variables and integrated out in the likelihood function. Calculation of the likelihood function under the codon-based model can be easily adapted from the algorithm for variable evolutionary rates among sites (![]()
![]()
). Parameters in the model include the branch lengths (t), the transition/transversion rate ratio (
), and the proportions of the two categories of sites (p1 and p2, with p1 + p2 = 1). These parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood using numerical optimization algorithms. The codon frequency parameters (
j) are calculated using the observed nucleotide frequencies at the three codon positions.
Positive selection model:
The neutral model can be extended by adding an extra category of positively selected sites (with
3 > 1). Nonsynonymous mutations at such sites thus have higher probabilities of fixation than synonymous mutations. Let the proportions of sites in the three categories be p1, p2, and p3 (with p1 + p2 + p3 = 1), and let the corresponding nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratios be
1 = 1,
2 = 0, and
3 > 1. The probability of observing data (xh) at site h is then
![]() |
(6) |
The log likelihood function can be calculated similarly to that under the neutral model with two categories of sites.
The positive-selection model is an extension of the neutral model, with two more parameters. Twice the log likelihood difference between the two models can be compared with a
2 distribution with d.f. = 2. This constitutes a likelihood ratio test of neutrality against an alternative model of positive selection.
In practice,
3 is optimized in the entire region from zero to infinity. In this case, it is appropriate to call the model a positive-selection model only if
3 > 1, as an estimate of
3 smaller than one provides no evidence for positive selection.
Because one might expect a continuum of the dN/dS rate ratio among sites even when no positive selection operates, we consider a variation of the neutral model in which the class
0 = 1 is replaced by a truncated gamma distribution on (0, 1). A proportion p1 of sites have rates from the truncated gamma distribution, while a proportion p2 (= 1 - p1) of sites are conserved and have
2 = 0. The truncated gamma distribution with shape parameter
and scale parameter ß has the following density
![]() |
(7) |
To avoid the use of too many parameters, we fix ß to be equal to
. Use of other values for ß is found to give roughly the same likelihood. For efficient computation, the truncated gamma distribution was approximated by five rate categories with equal probabilities (see ![]()
3. This will be referred to as the "continuous positive-selection model." Notice that when
=
, the two new models with continuous substitution rates are identical to the neutral and positive-selection models described above.
Identification of positively selected amino acid sites:
When parameters of the positive-selection model are estimated, an empirical Bayes' approach can be used to infer which category the site most likely belongs to. This method is similar to the approach of ![]()
k) is given by
![]() |
(8) |
The category k that maximizes the posterior probability is the most likely category for the site. Positively selected sites (i.e., sites belonging to the third category with
3 > 1) may be identified this way. The posterior probabilities provide a measure of accuracy of that inference.
| APPLICATIONS TO THE HIV-1 ENVELOPE GENE |
|---|
To examine the utilities of the models developed in this paper, we analyze the DNA sequence data of the HIV-1 envelope genes published by ![]()
![]()
![]()
![]()
There are 15, 11, 23, 15, and 13 sequences for years 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7, respectively, and the number of distinct sequences is 13, 11, 17, 15, and 12, respectively. As our codon-based models involve heavy computation, which makes it unfeasible to perform an analysis on a phylogeny of all the 77 sequences simultaneously, we analyze sequences from different years as if they were separate data sets. Only distinct sequences are used. For data of each year, the likelihood method was used under both simple and sophisticated nucleotide substitution models to perform heuristic tree searches to identify candidate trees. Candidate topologies found in this way often share long interior branches, for which the statistical support is strong, while the details of the topology may be different in different analyses. Results (not shown) suggest that our codon-based analysis, to be presented below, is not sensitive to the assumed topology of the phylogenetic tree, as long as the long interior branches are preserved in the topology. Two candidate topologies for each data set are used in later analysis. They give essentially identical parameter estimates, and results obtained from only one of them are reported in this paper. The tree topologies used are not presented, but are available from the authors upon request. For each data set, several starting values were used in the iteration. This was done as a protection against the existence of multiple local optima in the likelihood function. In this study, all starting values for a given data set resulted in the same optimum.
Besides the neutral and positive-selection models of this paper, two additional codon-based models developed previously (![]()
![]()
![]()
of the gamma distribution is inversely related to the extent of rate variation.
|
Comparison of models and tests of positive selection:
The log likelihood values under different codon-based models are listed in Table 1 for data of each year. The gamma model reduces to the Goldman and Yang model when the gamma shape parameter
. Comparison of twice the log likelihood difference between the two models with a
2 distribution with 1 d.f. suggests that the gamma model provides a significantly better fit to data of each year. This result is in accordance with previous analyses (![]()
The neutral model and the Goldman and Yang model are not nested, and so cannot be tested using a
2 approximation. Nevertheless, their likelihood values are comparable. The two models have the same number of parameters but the log likelihood value under the neutral model is higher than that under the Goldman and Yang model by 512 units (Table 1). The neutral model is thus a much more realistic representation of the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 envelope gene. This is also true for year 3, even though the average rate of nonsynonymous substitution is much higher than the average rate of synonymous substitution, suggesting that the neutral model should provide a poor fit to the data. Except for data of year 3, the fit of the neutral model is almost as good as, or even slightly better than, the gamma-rates model.
The positive-selection model includes two more parameters than the neutral model. These two models are nested, and twice the log likelihood difference can be compared with a
2 distribution with d.f. = 2 to test whether the positive-selection model provides a better fit to data than the neutral model. The difference is significant (P < 5%) for data of every year, except year 7 (for which P
9%). Clearly, the neutral model is inadequate to describe these data, and positive selection has been operating in the evolution of this viral gene. The Goldman and Yang model is also a special case of the positive-selection model with the constraint that p1 = p2 = 0, and p3 = 1. Twice the log likelihood difference between the two models ranges from 24 to 37 for different years. These differences are all significant (P < 1% with d.f. = 2), and the Goldman and Yang model with a constant dN/dS ratio among sites is rejected in favor of the positive-selection model for data of each year.
The same conclusion is reached when rates in the range between 0 and 1 are allowed in the neutral model (continuous neutral model). Indeed, the neutral model with, and without, continuously distributed mutation rates, modeled by the truncated gamma distribution, have the same likelihood values. Similarly, the positive-selection model, with and without continuous mutation rates, have very similar likelihood values. We have also fitted another set of neutral and positive-selection models by removing the class with
2 = 0 in the continuous mutation models. The neutral model thus constructed, which assumes that all sites have the dN/dS rate ratio
from the truncated gamma distribution, fits the data much more poorly than the neutral model specified by Equation 2 and Equation 3. The corresponding positive-selection model produces likelihood values very similar to those under the simple three-class positive-selection model. Therefore, likelihood ratio tests using this set of models all suggest positive selection acting on the gene (results not shown). To summarize, the statistical support for positive selection on the envelope gene appears to be rather insensitive to the assumed distribution of selection intensity among sites.
The positive-selection model and the gamma-rates model are not nested and cannot be compared using a
2 approximation. However, the positive selection model has higher likelihood value than the gamma-rates model for data of each year. Although the significance of the differences is uncertain, the results suggest that the positive-selection model provides the most realistic description of the evolution of the analyzed sequences. The reason appears to be that in the gamma-rates model the same distribution of rates is applied to both the synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions. However, most of the rate variation appears to be caused by variation in the selection intensity among nonsynonymous substitutions.
Variation of nonsynonymous substitution rates among years:
Maximum likelihood estimates of parameters obtained under different codon-based models are listed in Table 1 for data of each year. Estimates of the transition/transversion rate ratio (
) are more variable among years than among methods, and range from two to six, indicating that transitions occur much more frequently than transversions.
Notice that the neutral model, with and without a truncated gamma distribution, provides identical parameter estimates. The reason for this may be that the true rates are highly bimodal with a mode at
= 0 and a mode at
> 1. Very little of the probability mass appears to be located in the region between zero and one. Likewise, for the selective models, almost no improvement in the likelihood is obtained by allowing nonsynonymous rates in the region between zero and one. In the following we will therefore concentrate on the results of the neutral and selection models that do not allow nonsynonymous rates between
= 0 and
= 1.
Considerable differences exist in estimates of
between year 3 and the remaining years. For years 4 through 7 under the Goldman and Yang model, the estimate of
is <1. Likewise, estimates of p2 (proportion of conserved sites with
2 = 0) under both the neutral and the positive-selection models range from 0.55 to 0.67 among years 4 through 7, suggesting that a majority of amino acid sites in the protein are conserved in years 4 through 7. Estimates of p3 (proportion of positively selected sites with
3 > 1) under the positive-selection model range from 0.04 to 0.22, indicating that only a few sites in the sequence are under positive diversifying selection at any particular time.
![]()
![]()
3 = 29.5). Estimates of both p3 and
3 for years 4 through 7 are much smaller, indicating that the effect of positive selection is stronger in year 3 than in the later years. These results are in general agreement with the conclusion of ![]()
Identification of positively selected sites:
Because the positive-selection model provides a better fit to data of every year than the neutral model, Equation 7 is used to infer the most likely site category (with the associated dN/dS ratio) at each codon (amino acid) site. The posterior probabilities are also calculated. The results are shown in Figure 1AE, for years 3 through 7. Consistent with the parameter estimates (Table 1), more sites are inferred to be under positive selection in year 3 than in years 4 through 7. Only site 77 was identified with very high posterior probability to be under positive selection in all five years. Site 32 was identified to be under positive selection in years 3, 5, 6, and 7, while site 44 may be under positive selection in years 3, 4, 5, and 7. Apart from these sites, there seems to be considerable variation in the inferred sites for positive selection from year to year. The variation over the years may in part be due to rapid fixations of old mutations, and arrivals of new ones, as ![]()
|
Our analysis suggests that there may be as many positively selected sites (sites potentially under positive selection) in the flanking regions as in the V3 region. The single site that is identified to be under positive selection in all 5 years is site 77, outside the V3 region. The results suggest that selection may be acting on a broader region of the gene sequence than previously suggested (e.g., ![]()
It should be noted that positively selected sites identified in this way are not equivalent to highly variable sites. A positively selected site is characterized by both a high variability and an excess of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitutions. To illustrate this point, evolutionary rates at amino acid sites were estimated using the protein sequences translated from the DNA sequences of years 6 and 7 (Figure 1F). The empirical model of ![]()
![]()
![]()
Analysis of Cytochrome Oxidase II: a case of no positive selection:
To illustrate the performance of the method in a case where positive selection is not expected to have strongly influenced the evolution of the DNA sequence, we also applied the method to 10 vertebrate sequences of the mitochondrial Cytochrome Oxidase II (COII) gene. Sequences from 10 vertebrate species are used (the data set is described in ![]()
3 < 1 was obtained for this data set. This suggests that there may not be a large category of amino acid sites in this gene, where nonsynonymous substitutions occur at a higher rate than synonymous substitutions. This result is in contrast to those obtained from the HIV-1 envelope gene.
|
| DISCUSSION |
|---|
The biochemical properties of proteins suggest that the selection pressure should vary among amino acid sites. The analysis of the HIV-1 envelope genes strongly supports this assertion. A significant improvement in the fit of the model to data is achieved by allowing for variation of the selection intensity (reflected in the dN/dS ratio) among sites. Thus, the models developed in this paper, although very simple in nature, may provide more realistic descriptions of the evolutionary processes of protein-coding DNA sequences than previous models assuming a constant selection intensity among sites. This result may be surprising and emphasizes the importance of considering variation in the selection intensity along the gene when modeling molecular evolution.
Inference on the distribution of selection intensities along the gene is an underused tool in the search for the causes of molecular evolution. It may be possible to transform population genetic models concerning the distribution of selection coefficients among alleles into distributions of the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratios among amino acid sites. For example, models of slightly deleterious mutations, such as the models considered by ![]()
![]()
We also envisage the application of our likelihood ratio test of neutrality to various real data sets. It may be worthwhile to conduct a large-scale screening and apply the test to genes from different organisms and genomes. Our likelihood approach is applied to the original sequence data and accounts for the phylogenetic relationship of the sequences. The likelihood ratio test constructed this way makes full use of the information contained in the data and may be more powerful than previous methods. For example, knowledge of the protein structure helped ![]()
Program performance and availability:
The codon-based models developed in this paper involve intensive numerical computation. The likelihood calculation involves manipulations of matrices of size 61 x 61, instead of size 4 x 4, for nucleotide-based models. For error checking, independent C programs were written by both authors. These were found to be computationally feasible for data of ~1020 sequences (such as data sets analyzed in this paper) on fast workstations. The methods will be made available in the PAML program package (![]()
| ACKNOWLEDGMENTS |
|---|
We thank M. UYENOYAMA and two anonymous reviewers for comments. This study is supported by National Institutes of Health grant GM40282 to MONTGOMERY SLATKIN and a personal grant to R.N. from the Danish Research Council.
Manuscript received July 21, 1997; Accepted for publication December 5, 1997.
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J. Win, W. Morgan, J. Bos, K. V. Krasileva, L. M. Cano, A. Chaparro-Garcia, R. Ammar, B. J. Staskawicz, and S. Kamoun Adaptive Evolution Has Targeted the C-Terminal Domain of the RXLR Effectors of Plant Pathogenic Oomycetes PLANT CELL, August 1, 2007; 19(8): 2349 - 2369. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] |
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